Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
