A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
